Understanding the second wave of epidemics using the susceptible-infectious-recovered model

Authors

  • Raman Butta Administrative Training Institute, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
  • Shristi Butta Department of Pathology, IPGMER and SSKM Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, India
  • Manoj Kumar Gupta Department of Medical Gastroenterology Medical College and Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18203/2320-6012.ijrms20213097

Keywords:

COVID-19, SIR model, Second wave

Abstract

The world is currently reeling under the COVID-19 pandemic and secondary waves of the same are occurring in different countries. In the current paper, the authors try to explain the exact mathematical concept of a second wave based on their analysis of the popular SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model in epidemiology. Effort is made to graphically and mathematically illustrate the natural infection curve, the necessity of austerity measures, the effects of such measures on the infection curve and the possible reasons for a second wave. The risk of quick mutation and need for effective vaccination is also discussed. It is believed that this analysis will be of immense help to scientists, doctors and policy-makers to devise proper strategies to urgently control the current COVID-19 pandemic, especially in countries where virus variants and secondary waves are occurring.

Author Biographies

Raman Butta, Administrative Training Institute, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Deputy Magistrate

Administrative

Training Institute 

Kolkata, West Bengal , India 

Shristi Butta, Department of Pathology, IPGMER and SSKM Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Demostrator

Department of Pathology, IPGMER & SSKM Hospital 

Manoj Kumar Gupta, Department of Medical Gastroenterology Medical College and Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

 

Senior Resident , Department of Medical Gastroenterology

Medical College & Hospital  

Department of Medical Gastroenterology

Medical College & Hospital 

References

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Anderson RM, May RM. Vaccination and herd immunity to infectious diseases. Nature. 1985;318(6044):323-9.

Darwin C. On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life (1859). 1st ed. London: John Murray; 1859.

Chakraborty D, Agrawal A, Maiti S. Rapid identification and tracking of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Lancet. 2021;397(10282):1346-7.

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Published

2021-07-28

How to Cite

Butta, R., Butta, S., & Gupta, M. K. (2021). Understanding the second wave of epidemics using the susceptible-infectious-recovered model. International Journal of Research in Medical Sciences, 9(8), 2452–2454. https://doi.org/10.18203/2320-6012.ijrms20213097

Issue

Section

Short Communication